Why Short-Term Thinking Leads to Long-Term Success in a Changing World
Why Short-Term Thinking Leads to Long-Term Success in a Changing World
We are often told that long-term planning is the key to success. Set a goal, create a roadmap, and stick to it. But what if this traditional advice is holding you back? What if the most successful people—the so-called “dark horses” of their fields—are those who prioritize short-term adaptability over rigid long-term plans?
Research by Todd Rose and Ogi Ogas found that high achievers don’t obsess over where they should be in five or ten years. Instead, they ask: Who am I now? What motivates me today? What opportunities align with my current skills and interests? They make decisions based on match quality—the alignment between their current abilities and the opportunities in front of them. And when a better match appears, they pivot.
The Myth of Predictability
We like to believe that our preferences, values, and ambitions are stable. Yet studies show that we change far more than we expect. Research by Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert found that people vastly underestimate how much they will change over a decade. When asked to predict their future selves, people assume they’ll remain mostly the same. But when reflecting on their past selves, they acknowledge significant personal evolution.
This pattern suggests a critical flaw in long-term career planning: we are making decisions today for a version of ourselves that doesn’t yet exist.
How Change Shapes Success
Psychologist Brent W. Roberts analyzed 92 studies on personality development and found that personality traits evolve predictably over time. As people age, they tend to become more conscientious, emotionally stable, and agreeable, but less open to new experiences. This shift explains why young adults are more likely to explore, experiment, and take risks, while middle-aged individuals prioritize consistency and stability.
This natural evolution suggests that early-career specialization may not be as beneficial as we assume. If our interests and strengths change, then rigid career paths can become traps rather than stepping stones.
Action First, Reflection Second
Herminia Ibarra, a leadership expert, flips conventional wisdom on its head with her advice: Act first, then think. Instead of waiting for clarity before making a move, she argues that we discover who we are through action—by trying new things, meeting new people, and stepping outside our comfort zones.
This approach aligns with how dark horses navigate their careers. They don’t lock themselves into a path too soon. Instead, they embrace exploration, reassessing and adapting as they go.
The Key to Thriving in an Uncertain World
The world is changing faster than ever, and the ability to adapt is more valuable than having a rigid plan. Whether you’re an aspiring leader, entrepreneur, or professional at a crossroads, the best strategy is to focus on what fits now rather than worrying about an uncertain future.
By embracing short-term planning, you give yourself permission to evolve—and that’s the surest path to long-term success.
---------
This post is a reworking of ideas from Epstein, David. Range: How Generalists Triumph in a Specialized World
